The war in Ukraine has devolved from being primarily a Ukrainian war of resistance to the Russian invasion, to becoming a proxy war between two aggressive big powers fighting for long-term hegemony in Europe. Both elements have been there from the start. But now, recognizing that no short-term victory is possible, each side has admitted to the shift in recent weeks.
Putin apparently having given up on the idea of holding and taking power in Kyiv — if that was ever his real plan — now calls his adventure in Ukraine part of a protracted all-European proxy war with NATO. His Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian state media: “NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.”
He also warned that the risks of nuclear conflict were now “considerable.”
On the US side, Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin said that NATO was gearing up to help Ukraine for “the long haul,” with a strategic goal not just of supporting Ukraine, but of “weakening Russia.”
Neither side is expressing any desire at this time to take part in top-level peace talks.
From the We sanction you/You sanction us Dept.
Russia is threatening to end its gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria, exposing the major contradiction in NATO’s sanction strategy. How can you boycott Russian gas and oil when you’re totally dependent on it to keep your own economy from going off the rails? For weeks, the Kremlin has threatened to turn off pipelines if Europe didn’t pay for gas in rubles. The European Union argued that would defeat the purpose of sanctions aimed at punishing the country for its aggression.
Gas prices have surged 17% amid concern that other countries could be next if the war continues. The question remains: Who is sanctioning who?
Now, DJI technologies, the world’s largest manufacturer of commercial drones, has suspended operations in both Ukraine and Russia, becoming the first major Chinese company to openly quit the markets over the war.
According to the Washington Post:
The privately owned Shenzhen-based company said in a statement on Tuesday that it was undergoing an internal compliance assessment and would temporarily halt activity in both countries pending an outcome. It was unclear what triggered the decision, which a company spokesperson told Chinese media was “not a statement targeting any particular country but rather a statement about our principles.”
Last week, the company released a statement saying that DJI does not market or sell products for military use and refuses to “customize or enable modifications that would enable our products for military use.”
Now, if only the world’s biggest arms manufacturers would follow suit.
I know. I know.
Boots on the ground?
“Our forces are not and will not be engaged in a conflict with Russia in Ukraine,” said Biden at a White House news conference in February. But that was then. This is now.
Now, cold warriors like former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul are pushing Biden to reopen the US Embassy in Kyiv. An embassy, of course, brings with it a detachment of Marines to protect it. So far, Biden has been reluctant. He’s worried that the Embassy would become an easy target for anti-US activists and that an attack on the building could lead to an immediate escalation of the war and major involvement of US troops.
But McFaul tweets:
For the Cold Warriors, this has never really been about Ukraine.
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