Politics in the UK & US "awash in Russian money."
Big players already looking beyond current horror on the Russian invasion.
Heather Cox Richardson on Substack writes:
While a crackdown on illicit money should squeeze [Russian] oligarchs, it also has the potential to alter our domestic politics. Recent reports show that politics in the U.K. has been awash in Russian money, and it seems likely that such cash has influenced the U.S. as well.
And Bloomberg reports that about $350 billion in foreign currency reserves is now in the hands of governments around the world, effectively pre-funding war reparations.
Yesterday, the so-called REPO task force issued a statement “prioritizing our resources and working together to take all available legal steps to find, restrain, freeze, seize, and, where appropriate, confiscate or forfeit the assets of those individuals and entities that have been sanctioned in connection with Russia’s premeditated, unjust, and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the continuing aggression of the Russian regime.”
REPO includes Australia, Canada, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.
In other words, the big financial players and politicians in Europe and the US, are already looking beyond the current horror of the Russian invasion while anticipating and trying to shape a possible peace agreement, and positioning themselves politically for the aftermath.
It will also be interesting to see where all that sanction and REPO money, as well as Oligarch assets, ends up. How much of will be divided among NATO countries and corporations to reimburse themselves for the weapons they sent to Ukraine versus how much will go to help rebuild the country, to refugee relief, and to help mitigate the impending global impovershment and enviromental disaster resulting from the war.
It’s unclear how the war and its aftermath will affect the upcoming US elections. How much of a boost it will give to Biden and the Democrats, and how much the elections will be influenced by massive amounts of, war-related global PAC money flowing into the campaigns remains to be seen.
Lauren Gambino, Washington correspondent for the Guardian, writes:
At the Democrats’ annual retreat in Philadelphia last week, party leaders spoke of a world – and an electorate – reshaped by Russia’s invasion of its democratic neighbor. They said the conflict provided a new clarity of purpose – and a new villain: Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
But, she added, among their biggest obstacles are Biden’s deep unpopularity and the rising cost of gas, food, and rent…Whether voters blame Putin or Democrats for the rising cost of their gas may yet be a central question of the midterm election.
I’m actually stunned by comments made by some wealthy Democratic Party liberals about how thrilled they are to pay skyrocketing prices at the pump to help support the war effort.
But Biden himself is now criticizing the oil companies for their “price gouging” at the pump and their unwillingness at the present to expand drilling operations.
His comments drew immediate blowback from big oil. ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said they amount to a “talking point that’s not very helpful.”
“They just don’t understand the complexity of the business,” Lance said. “We sell into the market. We’re market takers” and don’t set the price of oil or fuel.
Lance wouldn’t speak to his own company’s price gouging as gas prices at the pump continue to rise, while the price/barrel has been sharply declining.
Inflation is not going away. The war in Ukraine could push it even higher. As Chicago-based United Airlines and other carriers try to recover from a devastating drop in travel during the pandemic, the war has created another problem: soaring jet fuel prices.
Then there’s the question of whether Biden will be in any physical or political position to even run again in ‘24. More on that later.