From Spin to Spike: The Mirage of Political Victory Over Gun Violence in Chicago

Mayor Johnson’s July 4th victory speech now reads like a premature pat on the back.

Last week, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson stood before cameras and declared that the city had just experienced its “least violent July Fourth weekend in six years.” He credited God, his “holistic policing strategy,” and “critical investments, particularly in communities of color. He pointed to initiatives, many of which were simply carried over from previous administrations, such as summer job programs, midnight basketball, and grants to street intervention groups, as key accomplishments—and some were.

But then came last weekend.

‘32 shot, six killed in most violent nonholiday summer weekend this year in Chicago’— Sun-Times.

Chicago saw a record surge in shootings. The same neighborhoods that had been momentarily quiet were once again flooded with trauma. The number of people killed and wounded in last weekend’s shootings surpassed the totals reported over Memorial Day weekend, which marked the unofficial start of summer. Over that holiday weekend, four men were killed, and at least 21 others were wounded.

Chicago wasn’t alone either in its downward-trending crime numbers or in its explosive weekend. Philadelphia, after months of declining gun violence, saw a July surge that rattled residents and officials alike. The city’s police commissioner blamed it on the heat, saying,

“In the summertime, we always, always have an increase in violence… July is a month where we will have one of our highest levels of violence.”

Unfortunately, there is nothing we can do about the heat. But there’s plenty we can do without flooding the neighborhood with cops.

Of course, I want to thank my God. Aren’t you glad, Chicago, that we serve a God who was at the beginning and the end? Hallelujah. — Brandon Johnson’s July 4th speech.

Here in Chicago, it’s up over 100° and will remain so through the weekend. That doesn’t bode well for neighborhood safety if the theory holds up.

But if heat’s the cause, why was there no spike in gun violence in wealthy communities like Winnetka, for example, which is one of the most affluent suburbs in the country? It experiences the same summer heat as Chicago, six miles down the lakefront. But despite the heat, gun violence there remains virtually nonexistent.

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Johnson’s July 4th victory speech now reads like a premature pat on the back. His administration touted the drop in shootings as proof that his strategy was working, but failed to mention that violence had simply taken a holiday (or even months-long) pause, not a permanent retreat.

Johnson’s speech didn’t just celebrate the weekend’s low violence numbers — they tied success directly to his administration’s strategy: “We’ve seen a significant reduction in crime and violence in Chicago because of our focus on more effective and strategic policing… and our investments in people.” He positioned targeted deployments of officers as a new model for progressive public safety.

But here’s the tension: if strategic policing earned credit for calm, what earned blame for chaos?

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Violence Is Not a PR Metric

As the risk of repeating myself: there was no spike in shootings last weekend in Lincoln Park, the Gold Coast, or Lakeview. The surge was concentrated in neighborhoods that had long been abused by CPD and abandoned by policy and investment. And yet, when violence dips for a moment, politicians rush to claim credit — ignoring the fact that their “progress” skips entire zip codes.

Gun violence is not a branding opportunity nor an excuse for the militarization of the cities. And when leaders use selective data to hide its causes or to inflate their success, they’re not solving anything. They’re laundering their reputation through suffering.

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Chicago’s mayor has done some things right, but…

Johnson’s veto of the curfew expansion was principled — youth criminalization is a lazy substitute for investing in youth. His appeal to the federal government is necessary but problematic. Asking for support is reasonable, but with Trump in the White House and in control of the Justice Department, such pleas are unlikely to yield trauma counselors or housing vouchers but rather Marines and optics. Ask LA’s Mayor Bass.

“We’re just simply saying that Chicago deserves [the same support] as Highland Park,” Johnson said, referencing the disparity in federal and state aid after mass shootings. But federal help won’t fix what state and local policy refuses to — or is unable to — confront: the wealth gap, concentrated poverty, and the gun economy that profits from death.

Mayor Johnson’s team deserves credit for breaking with some harmful traditions, but there are still more that remain. Until the city mobilizes to oppose concentrated poverty, racialized neglect, and a gun economy that thrives on despair, every so-called "victory" will be just another pause before the next tragedy.

"Tell no lies, Claim no easy victories..." -- Amilcar Cabral